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Point-guard landscape sits on second tier

Ken Berger

June 29, 2008

If Knicks fans booed Danilo Gallinari on draft night because of his name, heritage or an unfortunate and ill-advised comparison to Frederic Weis, their actions not only bordered on intolerance, they missed the point.

If they were booing because the Knicks missed out on a point guard, they need to step back in off the ledge. There will be no O.J. Mayos or Derrick Roses available in the summer trade market, but there are plenty of serviceable point guards at Donnie Walsh's disposal.

The big names are Chauncey Billups and Baron Davis, but both are too pricey for the Knicks, who are committed to clearing cap space. Davis wants to come to New York, but a person familiar with Walsh's thinking said he doesn't see him as an affordable solution.

With the free-agent negotiating period opening Tuesday, Walsh already seems to have a point-guard target in mind. Most of the options are short-term fixes who won't break the bank.

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One intriguing possibility is restricted free agent Monta Ellis, whom the Knicks could offer only the mid-level exception or acquire in a sign-and-trade. Ellis is intrigued by Mike D'Antoni's wide-open system but is more of a scorer than a ball-mover. He averaged only 1.82 assists-to-turnovers per possession last season.

The most effective of the realistic second-tier options, ranked in order of their per-minute efficiency ratings devised by ESPN.com's John Hollinger, are: Jordan Farmar (Lakers), Kyle Lowry (Memphis), Raymond Felton (Charlotte), Chris Quinn (Miami), Roger Mason (Washington), Beno Udrih (Sacramento), Kirk Hinrich (Chicago), Anthony Carter (Denver), Jason Williams (Miami), Jamaal Tinsley (Indiana), Steve Blake (Portland), Janerro Pargo (New Orleans), Luke Ridnour (Seattle) and Marcus Williams (New Jersey).

Of those, only five had at least a 3-1 assist-to-turnover ratio per possession: Blake (3.64), Jason Williams (3.35), Quinn (3.22), Carter (3.12) and Ridnour (3.01).

But turnovers aren't taboo for D'Antoni because his teams get so many extra possessions. Assist ratio is the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Those who ranked highest in this category were Carter (37.8), Blake (34.6), Tinsley (33.9), Ridnour (33.1), Jason Williams (31.2), Hinrich (30.8) and Felton (30.1).

Anyone playing point guard for D'Antoni has to be able to shoot, too. The best of the bunch in terms of effective field-goal percentage (which equates two-pointers and three-pointers) were Mason (57.3), Farmar (56.3), Quinn (55.9), Udrih (54.0), Lowry and Carter (both 53.1) and Blake (51.8).

Steve Nash averaged 3.05 assists-to-turnovers per possession last season, and his effective field-goal percentage was 64.1. Taking those two stats into account, the closest approximation of Nash in the above group would be Blake, Quinn and Carter.

By comparison, Stephon Marbury had a 2.35 assist-to-turnover ratio per possession last season, and his effective field-goal percentage was 52.7. That's not going to cut it for D'Antoni. Farmar, Lowry, Felton and Quinn all ranked ahead of Marbury in overall per-minute efficiency last season.

Walsh's options will be narrowed by who is actually available, and at what price. Hinrich has no future in Chicago, Portland needs to move players, Tinsley has worn out his welcome in Indiana and Larry Brown drafted D.J. Augustin to replace Felton in Charlotte. Lowry's days are numbered in Memphis with the addition of Mayo, and Carter is expected to be out of a starting job in Denver.

The Knicks tried to pry Blake from Portland last summer, but Isiah Thomas didn't want to give up enough. Although Walsh is willing to trade David Lee for cap space or an impact player, he doesn't appear willing to part with him if all he gets back is a stopgap point guard.

All of this depends on what Walsh does with Marbury, whose $21.9-million contract comes off the books next summer.

Former Knicks coach Jeff Van Gundy has been making the rounds, saying he believes Marbury should stay because he can be effective in D'Antoni's system. Easy for Van Gundy to say; he doesn't have to coach him. The players don't want Marbury around, and his brooding presence in the locker room could sabotage D'Antoni's rebuilding efforts.

The certainty about Marbury is that he won't accept a bench role and will make D'Antoni regret keeping him around if he isn't starting.

So the decision is pretty simple if you think about it: If Walsh can find a more effective point guard, Marbury will have to go. And as you can see, there are plenty of options.