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2009 Zagat, Michelin guides out amid jittery NYC dining scene

By Lauren Johnston, amNY.com | Lauren.johnston@am-ny.com

October 7, 2008

First to fall were Wall Street's financial giants, and the next to suffer could be the white-gloved hands that fed them.

Pricey eateries such as Per Se, Le Bernardin and Daniel took top honors in the 2009 Zagat restaurant survey, released Tuesday, but the book's creator contends that as our economy dips and New Yorkers cut costs, these bastions of fine dining will likely feel the pangs.

"Restaurants like Masa and Per Se are charging at least $300 per head. I think that's going to come to a screeching halt," said co-founder and CEO Tim Zagat. And he said the Wall Street collapse will pack a punch once the holiday season arrives.

"Obviously Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers aren't going to be having parties this year," he said.

Bret Thorn, an editor at Nation's Restaurant News, agreed, noting that "without those bonuses, our restaurants will suffer."

An influx of money from European tourists and steady alcohol sales could provide the restaurants some cushion, Thorn said, but not enough to compensate for the lost Wall Street millions.

Michelin guide director Jean-Luc Naret, whose 2009 edition also hits shelves Tuesday, had more faith in the staying power of the top-dollar plate. It's still tough to get a reservation in these places (even Michelin had to wait for Momofuku Ko), he said, and there are more billionaires in the world than ever before. "Everything is value for money," Naret said. "If they continue to provide good quality ... the top end will continue to grow."

Zagat interviewed more than 38,000 people for its 2009 guide, and factored in the bleak financial forecast by asking New Yorkers what effect the weakening economy has had on their dining habits. While 38 percent said they ate out less, another 38 percent said they still ate out, but in less expensive places.

"If you are worried about your job and whether you have one you will eat less flamboyantly, but you still have to fill your stomach," Zagat said, adding that the guide lists 400 restaurants with meals for $20.

The guide celebrates its 30th birthday this year, and Zagat said at the outset they included cuisines from about 20 countries as compared with about 90 today. The boost in ethnic foods, he said, has helped stave off inflation.

"They have been charging less, so aside from the fact that they brought in a lot of wonderful food, they have kept prices down," he said

Zagat predicted the restaurant business will slow, but ultimately rebound as it has during previous economic downturns. "You'll still have more openings than closings, you'll still have improvements in the industry, you'll have more restaurants being price-sensitive," he said.

Ed Levine, the founder of Serious Eats: New York, (newyork.seriouseats.com) provides some restaurant replacements that can help ease your wallet in tough times:

Japanese
High end: Soto
Budget: Ippudo
Best Value at High End: Morimoto at lunch

American
High end: Gramercy Tavern
Budget: The Redhead, or the tavern at Gramercy Tavern

Italian
High end: Del Posto
Budget: Fiore

French
High end: Daniel
Budget: Jean-Georges at lunch